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eatery , cafes , and gym act as " superspreading " sites forCOVID-19 transmissionlast spring , account for the majority of new infections in large U.S. cities , according to a new study .
The finding , publish today ( Nov. 10 ) in the journalNature , also suggest that reducing maximum occupancy at these locale may be more efficient for inhibit COVID-19 distribute than blanket lockdown , the authors said .
" Our work highlights that it does not have to be all or nothing , " study senior author , Jure Leskovec , a estimator scientist at Stanford University , toldThe New York Times .
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Risky venues
The field researchers created a model to mimic the spread of COVID-19 in 10 major U.S. cities : New York , Los Angeles , Chicago , Dallas , Washington , D.C. , Houston , Atlanta , Miami , Philadelphia and San Francisco . The model not only take into account standard factors in the bed cover of an infectious disease ( such as how many people are susceptible , exposed , infected and resistant to the computer virus ) , but also pass on tangible data that show up how often people come in into close contact with others . To do so , they incorporate information on people ’s behavior using anonymized cellphone data from 98 zillion Americans , track their movements from their neighborhood to about 553,000 public locations between March 1 and May 2 . They also obtained the square footage of these venue to calculate the number of the great unwashed per square foot in each of these locations at a given clip . .
They observe that their model could accurately omen daily COVID-19 case counts in these cities .
The researchers then estimated the number of infections that occurred at each of the public locations , and found that the majority of infections occurred at just a small number of " superspreading " venues . For example , in Chicago , 10 % of venus accounted for 85 % of the predicted infections , the authors rule .
What ’s more , when the researcher modeled the risk of reopening venue after lockdown , some venues — particularlyrestaurants — pose a much higher peril than others in term of the number of novel infections that would go on upon reopen .
" Restaurants were by far the risky places , about four time riskier than gym and coffee shops , followed by hotel , " Leskovec said in a news conference , according to the Times . The researchers conjecture these Urania were more risky because they tended to have a high-pitched density of people who stayed for farseeing periods .
Some of the less wild venue include railroad car dealerships , gas stations and hardware storage , the study establish .
Overall , the research worker found that fix venue occupancy to 20 % of maximum capacity reduce predicted infections by more than 80 % , while only reducing overall visits to these locale by 42 % .
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Coronavirus disparities
The study findings also help explain why minority and low - income populations have beenhit particularly intemperately by COVID-19 .
During lockdowns , hoi polloi in lower - income neighborhood did not reduce their mobility as much as those in more flush neighborhood , likely because they had Job that did not allow them to mold from home . In add-on , venues such asgrocery storesin lower - income areas had higher COVID-19 transmission charge per unit because these venues were small and more crowd , and people stayed there longer , compare with exchangeable venues in more affluent country , the study retrieve .
These determination suggest ways for policymakers to foreshorten disparities in COVID-19 transmission rates , for model , with occupancy cap to cut back crowding , in addition to improved paid leave policies so worker can last out home when unhinged , the authors order .
" Our results propose that transmission disparity are not the inescapable issue of divisor that are unmanageable to come up to in the forgetful term , like differences in preexisting conditions ; on the adverse , brusk - condition policy conclusion can substantially affect contagion consequence by altering the overall amount of mobility allowed and the types of [ locus ] reopened , " the authors said .
The source note their model did not include all public locations , in particular it did not include schoolhouse or post . In summation , because the study used information from the origin of thepandemic , the findings do not necessarily lend oneself to COVID-19 transmission today . For example , people are more potential to practice social distancing and wear down masquerade party at eatery today compared with March . And health official have note that many new eruption in the U.S. are being repulse by small gatherings in people ’s homes .
Still , the researchers trust their findings can be used by policymakers to help manoeuvre reopenings . They are currently play on a tool to make their good example accessible for policymakers and public wellness officials .
Originally publish on Live Science .
